Numbers Don’t Lie (1st Quarter GDP)
This week GDP numbers for the first quarter came out and the numbers came out higher than expected ( Annualized rate of 3.2 versus an expectation of 2.5%). MarketWatch published an article on Friday and a couple of good takeaways worth mentioning are: 1. GDP Growth was driven by inventory building and trade 2. State and Local Government spending jumped 3.9% 3. Fed rate cut might be in question This growth rate hasn't been seen since 2015, but despite the rosy headline, the devil was in the details. Because of the pending trade sanctions, companies pulled forward future purchases in 2018 to ensure that they had enough product coming into 2019, hence muting our typical trade deficit. The Government shutdown also played a significant part because of the compensatory payments that needed to be made to Government employees. The economy has been doing well this year (S&P500 up over 10% YTD), and with other countries turning the corner (China in particular) in t...