The Devil is in the Details

Good Morning,

Late last week,  one of the most famous/beloved investors (Warren Buffet) took a big loss. CNBC posted about his company failing to meet earnings but unfortunately the issue is deeper than missing earnings. For anyone investing in the stock market, this should raise an eyebrow for the following reasons:

1. The loss that Warren took was associated to a host of issues with Kraft Heinz.

2. Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate company that mimics a high quality, value biased ETF based on the company strategy and stakes in various companies.

3. This loss should create renewed awareness of companies overpaying for acquisitions.

Kraft Heinz was historically considered a safe stock, but after the massive write-down they took on intangible assets associated with their Kraft and Oscar Myer Brands along with the cut in dividend it raised a lot of red flags associated with sustainability of the business. Getting acquisitions price right is tough and as seen by Kraft Heinz, if you get it wrong it can negatively impact your business.

The problem with this is that now companies are more interconnected with us through ETFs and Mutual Funds. In a previous post I mentioned that it is always a good practice to look at the top ten holdings for any fund so you know what the biggest exposures are, and this is a reason why to do it.  In Buffett's latest and last annual letter he mentions the changing dynamics within the valuation of his own business and it sheds light that even companies change. Maybe our perspective of what a safe investment should also evolve.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/23/berkshire-hathaway-fourth-quarter-2018-earnings.html

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Tax Time!

Good Morning, The end of January is quickly approaching, which the means tax season is upon us. Everyone hasn’t their own method of filing their taxes, but the new 1040 form is now the size of a postcard. Marketwatch came out with an article highlighting this change and other sources. The key points from the article are: 1. Despite it being smaller, it isn’t more different than simplistic 2. You need to file schedules if you are: itemizing, have business activities, capital gains/losses or dividend/interest income associated with investments, etc. 3. The due date for most taxpayers is 4/15 When the new tax laws were put in place the goal was to simplify the tax code and allow more people to use the standard deduction. What most of us will find out is that with a change to the tax code the size of our refunds/payments will change based on the taxable percentages changing.   The simplification of the tax code might change the need for a tax preparer, but before...
Read more

Federal Reserve Raises Rates Again

(repost from 9/27/2018) Good Morning, Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this year. The CNNMoney article below covered a couple points worth paying attention to: The Fed does not see tariffs having an impact on the economic data at this time There is some uncertainty with doing another rate increase in the fourth quarter (earlier this year the Fed was split on whether it should do three or four raises), but they plan on doing three increases next year, and one in 2020 Trade tensions between the US and China are a headwind for 2019 growth which is forecasted to be 2.5% (currently we are on track for 3.1% GDP growth) This article lays out expectations for the Fed to raise close to another 1% over the next 2 years which would push interest rates higher. The impact of this will be higher interest rates payments on variable loans, higher interest rate payments for the government, and this will slow down our hot economy. The Federal Reserve is dependent on ...
Read more

Fake Christmas

Good Morning, This year has been a crazy one that seemed more like a soap opera than real life. One of the topics that I have blogged about in the past was the F.I.R.E. (Financial Independence, Retire Early) methodology. When I first learned about this topic earlier this year ( January 2019 post ), I was a little skeptical based on my view that some of its underlying future assumptions are flawed. Last week a proponent of the F.I.R.E. methodology wrote an article for CNBC about why the lifestyle turned out to be unsustainable for his family. The CNBC article highlighted a couple of key points; Income needs were overestimated based on an assumption of higher bond interest Children increase cash-flow needs Healthcare costs were underestimated Location and cost of living were significant factors in the cost of living The overall concept of F.I.R.E. is attractive, but sustainability was always one of my biggest complaints. I am a fan of the concept and the philosophy, bu...
Read more