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Good Morning,

Summer is here, but should we follow the old phrase of "sell in May and go away?" If you have been following my post, that is not something I preach, but it looks like we might finally receive some relief from the recent political developments. Yesterday MarketWatch posted an article from the Associated Press providing a recent update on the US/China trade war. In case you might not know, there is a summit going on with numerous countries participating (called the G20 Summit), and one of the most anticipated meetings was between the United States and China. The article from MarketWatch highlighted a couple of outcomes from the meeting:

1. US companies will be allowed to sell to Huawei
2. No new tariffs at this time
3. The administration sees Saudia Arabia as a key ally in the Middle East

From my viewpoint, the first two points have the ability to impact the markets while the third point reaffirms our usual stance in the Middle East. To be fair, US companies had been sidestepping some of the Huawei restrictions, but this allows them to legitimately do business without repercussion.

This development precedes the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decision in July to change interest rates. Right now the market is projecting to be a 25 to 50 basis point cut, but based on this news diminishes the likelihood of that happening. The market will probably end up rallying over this news, and if there are no red flags from inflation, consumer confidence or spending the Fed might end up keeping rates the same based on their data points that they rely on. Regardless, this is a much-needed break in political uncertainty that should hopefully allow investors to put down their phones and enjoy the summer more.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-to-ease-huawei-ban-as-us-china-trade-negotiations-restart-2019-06-29?mod=mw_theo_homepage

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